A news summary, focused on 10 big employers; updated 4:53 p.m.

The probability of the Justice Department approving the deal has now declined well below a 50/50 chance, JP Morgan said in a report today. If the deal bombed altogether, the Louisville insurer’s shares could fall to a range of as low as $115 to $125, the investment bank said.

Humana’s unexpected plunge came as suitor Aetna was to meet with top Justice Department officials today as it seeks to win antitrust approval for its takeover of Louisville-based Humana, multiple media outlets have been reporting. The Hartford insurer’s meeting was to include the DOJ’s No. 3 official, a top-level gathering that signals the review is entering a final, make-or-break stage, according to Bloomberg News, which cited sources it didn’t identify.

“We have long held that only HUM shares have material downside if the DOJ were to block the pending acquisition by Atena,” JP Morgan’s Gary Taylor said in in his report.

Humana’s stock closed moments ago down 2.7%, or $4.35 a share, to $158.15. It fell another $1.14 in extended trading. Yesterday, it fell a far steeper 10% on sales volume more than six times normal — the biggest one-day drop in four years. It was Humana’s lowest closing price since Feb. 12, when shares hit $160.37.

Aetna’s stock was recently up 1.3%, or $1.43, to $116.89; yesterday, it closed down 4%.

“The meeting falls two weeks after a similar Justice Department session with Anthem and Cigna, which are pursuing their own $48 billion merger,” Reuters said. “While department officials are concerned that the Anthem-Cigna tie-up may stifle competition, Aetna is arguing that its deal is different: It maintains that its overlap with Humana is small and any loss of competition is easily fixable, according to a person familiar with the insurer’s thinking who, like the others, asked not to be identified discussing a private matter.”

Today’s purported meeting was first disclosed at Continue reading “Humana dives again on fears $37B Aetna merger is unraveling; JP Morgan warns stock could plunge to $115 if deal collapses” →